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Suppose government wants to know loss incured by Indian economy owing to traffic congestion.
asked in Estimation by (37 points) | 203 views

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Not sure how this is a product question but I'd like to give my macroeconomic brain some work, so here's what I think:

What does traffic congestion cost:

  1. Delayed commutes (From the analogy of Time is Money, delayed commutes are lost manhours)
  2. Traffic congestion creates additional consumption of fuel.
  3. Traffic congestion creates more pollution, so more maintenance for the country.

Let's consider point 1 for now, and move ahead:

1. 36% of the Indian population have vehicles - 0.36*1.2 = 432 million people are prone to be a traffic jam.

Let's say 4 hours lost/week  =  208 hours lost/year. Assuming profits generated by a single person in 1 hour is 50rupees (Avg salary of 4lakhs)

= 432,000,000 * 208 * 50 = 4492 billion rupees or 64 billion USD.  

The same analysis can be done for the other 2 hypotheses.

 

Thoughts?

 

answered by (19 points)
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I would first define a Persona- say a commuter that commutes, every day- call it a daily commuter, and then specifiy how many hours a day that commuter is delayed per day, multiple it by 5 (five working days), and can simply ignore the weekend- due to the reason that the Commuter either many not use the car or the commute is not had... rest looks great.
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What are the type traffic congestions and who gets stuck in it?

  • Regular
    • central areas of big and small cities 
    • highways/toll
    • small roads or alterante roads that people take to avoid traffic
  • Irregular
    • Accidents
    • Blockage of Roads due to construction or other activities
    • Crowd during Festivals casuing Traffic
We'll focus on regular traffic congestions for this problem.
 

First let me identify personas which are affected by the traffic congestions

  • office commuters (morning and evening)
  • school goers (morning and afternoon)
  • shoppers/home makers (afternoon and weekends)
  • tourists
  • travelling business owners and employees 

Out of all the above personas losses to office goer, travelling business owners and school goers is significant

Population of India  ~ 1200 Million

Family size ~ 4 Members per family

Hence, There are 300 Million families

Assume equal distribution of people between 1 to 60 age

Hence, we get 20 Million in each age group

From age 6 to 22 people travel for education

17 * 20 Milllion * 0.25% = 85 Million travel

from age 22 to 60 people travel for work and shopping

40 * 20 Million * 3/8 work * 0.5% travel = 150 Million

40 * 20 Million * 1/8 shop * 0.5% travel = 50 Million

We get Total of 

285 ~ 300 Million

Roughly 20% dont get stuck in traffic - short distance and time of travel / night shift etc

Hence we get rest 80% people who get stuck in traffic on regular basis 

Total 240 Million

We will bucket these people by buckets based on minutes they get stuck in traffic

10  Minutes = 40% = 96 = 960 Milllion Minutes

20  Minutes = 30% = 72 = 1440 Milllion Minutes

30  Minutes = 15% = 36 = 1080 Milllion Minutes

60  Minutes = 10% = 24 = 1440 Milllion Minutes

120 Minutes = 5%  = 12 = 1440 Milllion Minutes

Total  6360 Million minutes = 106 Million hrs per Day

 

Now we'll Calculate Loss to Indian Economy

Fuel 5% hrs =   106 * 10% = 5 Million hrs

Hourly fuel needed = 60 Rupees

 = 300 Million

 = .3 Billion Rupees

 

vehicle losses

240 mn * 0.05% = 0.12 mn * 1000 

= 0.12 Billion Rupees

 

Total Real Loss = 0.3 + 0.12 = .44 Billion Rupees

 

Total Opportunity Loss

106 mn * (20% people may work) = 20 Million hrs * min wage 50 rs =  1 Billion Rupees

Public Property loss

= electicity + signals + traffic cops = 1 Billion Rupees Daily

Total Daily Loss

0.44 + 1 + 1 = 2.44 Billion Rupees

Annual Loss 

 2.44 * 365 = 890 Billion Rupees = $ 12 Billion 

answered by (57 points)
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The population of India -1.3 billion

Urban population - 30% -> contribution to overall India -> 50% GDP -> so adujstment 40%

Traveling during peak times when there is traffic congestion - 30% - Net-> 30% of 40% -  12%

Productivity loss of the population - 20% -> Net -> 20%*12% -> 2.4%

GDP of India ->  2600 Billiomn

Loss - 2.4% of 2600 Billion -> 62 Billion

As I am using GDP which automatically averages out contribution, I am not diving into personas and such
answered ago by (13 points)

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