# Exercise 5

1- What is the market size of golf carts in the US?

2- How would you improve the Facebook Messenger app?

The article how to answer an estimation question in a product manager job interview helps you prepare for estimation interview questions. And the article how to answer a product improvement question in a product manager job interview helps you prepare for product improvement questions.

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Dave

To calculate the total market size of golf carts in the US, here is the model I would use:

The market size is equal to price of a golf cart x the number of golf carts sold per year

Assuming the price of a golf cart is \$5K, I will just have to calculate the total number of golf cards sold per year.

Here is how I can calculate them.

Let’s say that population of the US is 320M and there are 4M people in each age year (320M / 80 years = 4M). Now here is how I would estimate total number of golf players:

age range of 0 to 20 – 80M – assume 0% play golf

age range of 20 to 60 – 160M – break to two income levels
– under \$100K income – Represent 80% of people in this age group – let’s say 5% of people in the age group of 20 to 60 with income less than \$100K play golf
– between \$100K to \$200K income – Represent 19% of people in this age group – let’s say 10% of people in the age group of 20 to 60 with income between \$100K to \$200K play golf
– over \$200K income – Represent 1% of people in this age group – let’s say 30% of people in the age group of 20 to 60 with income more than \$200K play golf

age range of 80 to 60 – 80M – assume 5% play golf

Now, we can calculate total number of golf players in the US
80M x 0% + 160M x (80% x 5% + 19% x 10% + 1% x 30%) + 80M x 5% = 0 + 160M x (4%+ 1.9% + 0.3%) + 4M = 0 + 160M x 6.2% + 4M = 9.6 + 4M = 13.5M

Now, let’s assume each golf resort has 400 members. this means there are a total of 13.5M / 400 = about 35K golf resorts in the US. Before I continue, I’ll do a quick sanity check:
there are 4K zip codes in the US. This means each zip code has about 9 golf resorts. A bit high but it could be acceptable.

Now, let’s say each resort has 30 golf carts. That means there are 35K x 30 = 1.05M golf carts in the US. Now, if the average life of a golf cart is 5 years, there are 1M / 5 years = 200K golf carts sold each year. And at the price of \$5K per golf card, the total market size of the golf carts in the US is 200K x \$5K = \$1B.

Guest

Hi Dave. I think this is a good answer. Your answer is well thought out and explained well.

Guest
Nimesh

Here is how I would improve the Facebook Messenger app.

First, I would chose the persona I want to improve the FB Messenger experience for. Let’s say it’s the members of a group that are trying to decide on the logistics of an event – e.g. would be location or time. It’s usually hard to select the time or location that’s convenience for most people because there are multiple people posting in a group chat, making it difficult to keep track of and count the opinions.

One way to solve this problem would be launching a voting functionality that allows anyone in the group to quickly create a voting UI that includes the options people can chose. As the users answer and choose their preferred option, the vote results will be updated in real time. This helps everyone see the results quickly.

What triggers the voting? Well Facebook Messenger can use Artificial Intelligence to decide when there is potentially a need for a vote option. When there is, present “would you like to set up a vote?” and allow person to select “yes” or “no”. If they say “no”, remove it. If they say “yes”, ask for the “question” and “options”. Then user clicks on “submit” and voting starts.